Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?
To answer this question, Greenspan embarked on a multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting is an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own career to offer an empirically based grounding in what we can and can't know about economic forecasting.
The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to our competition with China to natural disasters in an age of global warming.
Liaquat Ahamed is an investment manager and author of the best seller Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, about the lead-up to the Great Depression. The book won the 2010 Pulitzer Prize for History, the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Gold Medal for 2010, the 2009 Financial Times-Goldman Sachs Best Business Book of the Year, and was selected by The New York Times and TIME magazine as one of their top ten books of 2009.
Ahamed has been a professional investment manager for 25 years; he has worked at the World Bank and the New York-based partnership of Fischer Francis Trees and Watts, where he served as chief executive. He is currently an adviser to several hedge fund groups including the Rock Creek Group and the Rohatyn Group; he is a director of Aspen Insurance Co., and serves on the boards of trustees of the Brookings Institution and the New America Foundation.
Alan Greenspan is president of Greenspan Associates, LLC and was the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held for more than 18 years. From 1974 to 1977, Greenspan was chairman of President Gerald Ford’s Council of Economic Advisers; and from 1981 to 1983, he served as chairman of the National Commission on Social Security Reform. Before his appointment to the Fed in 1987, Greenspan served as a director of J.P. Morgan, Mobil, Alcoa, General Foods, and Capital Cities/ABC. He has received the Legion of Honor from France, became an honorary Knight Commander of the British Empire, and received the Medal of Freedom, the highest civil award in the US. He is the author of The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World.