A movie star as governor? No way! Planes hitting skyscrapers? The stuff of horror films! Forecasters struggle to anticipate an ever-stranger geopolitical reality. In this moment of unprecedented uncertainty and change, says Paul Saffo, it is tempting to conclude that forecasting is as dangerous as it is futile.
In fact, connecting short-term policy to long-range forecasting is surprisingly easy -- and absolutely crucial to meeting the challenges before us. All it takes is a simple shift in perspective and a few common-sense heuristics.
Saffo is a legendary technology forecaster, with over two decades of experience exploring long-term technological change and its impact on business and society.
Paul Saffo is a Silicon Valley-based forecaster with three decades experience helping corporate and governmental clients understand and respond to the dynamics of large-scale, long-term change. He is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar with mediaX, teaches forecasting in the Engineering School at Stanford, and is chair of Future Studies at Singularity University. Saffo is also a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. Saffo holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University.