A movie star as governor? No way! Planes hitting skyscrapers? The stuff of horror films! Forecasters struggle to anticipate an ever-stranger geopolitical reality. In this moment of unprecedented uncertainty and change, says Paul Saffo, it is tempting to conclude that forecasting is as dangerous as it is futile.
In fact, connecting short-term policy to long-range forecasting is surprisingly easy -- and absolutely crucial to meeting the challenges before us. All it takes is a simple shift in perspective and a few common-sense heuristics.
Saffo is a legendary technology forecaster, with over two decades of experience exploring long-term technological change and its impact on business and society.
Paul Saffo is a forecaster with over two decades experience exploring the dynamics of large-scale, long-term change. He is Managing Director of Foresight at Discern Analytics, teaches at Stanford University and is a researcher through mediaX at Stanford University. Saffo serves on a variety of not-for-profit boards including the Long Now Foundation, and the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. Saffo’s essays have appeared in a wide range of publications including The Harvard Business Review, Fortune, Wired, The Los Angeles Times, Newsweek, The New York Times, and the Washington Post. Saffo holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University and Stanford University.