In his latest book, author James Mann examines the evolution of American policy toward China and asks, "What are our ideas and hidden assumptions about China?"
In this follow-up to his best-selling book The Rise of the Vulcans, Mann explores two scenarios popular among the policy elite. The "Soothing Scenario" contends that the successful spread of capitalism will gradually bring about a development of democratic institutions, free elections, independent judiciary, and a progressive human rights policy.
In the "Upheaval Scenario," the contradictions in Chinese society between rich and poor, cities and the countryside, and between the openness of the economy and the unyielding Leninist system will eventually lead to a revolution, chaos, or collapse.
Against this backdrop, Mann poses a third scenario and asks, "What will happen if Chinese capitalism continues to evolve and expand but the government fails to liberalize?"- World Affairs Council of Northern California
James Mann, author-in-residence at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, is the author of four books, Beijing Jeep, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China from Nixon to Clinton, The Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush's War Cabinet, and The Rebellion of Ronald Reagan.
He was previously the diplomatic correspondent and the foreign affairs columnist for the Los Angeles Times and served as the Beijing bureau chief from 1984 to 1987. He has also written for The Atlantic Monthly, The New Republic and The Washington Post. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and lives in Maryland.
Johns Hopkins University author-in-residence James Mann explains what he calls the "Starbucks fallacy" - the belief that the growing middle class of China will eventually demand democracy after reaping the benefits of capitalism.