60th Annual Asilomar Conference: The Balance of Power in 2020 hosted by the World Affairs Council of Northern California.
Plenary 5: The Wild Cards with moderator J. Stapleton Roy and featuring panelists Thomas Fingar and Chas Freeman.
The lingering conflicts in the Middle East, the uncertain proliferation of WMDs, and the unpredictable foreign policies of such states as Iran and North Korea will continue to affect the balance of power. How are these factors likely to impact the rising powers and the United States over the next fifteen years?
Dr. Thomas Fingar
Dr. Thomas Fingar was Assistant Secretary of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) from July 2004 until May 2005 when he was named Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis & Chairman, National Intelligence Council. While at the State Department he served as Acting Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and Research (2003-2004 and 2000-2001), Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989).
His intelligence career began in 1970 as the senior German linguist in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, USAREUR & 7th Army in Heidelberg, Germany. Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including Senior Research Associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control, and Director of the University's U.S.-China Relations Program. Other previous positions include assignment to the National Academy of Sciences as Co-Director of the U.S.-China Education Clearinghouse, adviser to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and consultant to numerous U.S. Government agencies and private sector organizations.
Dr. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (B.A. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in Political Science). He is a career member of the Senior Executive Service. His principal foreign languages are Chinese and German. Dr. Fingar has published dozens of books and articles, mostly on aspects of Chinese politics and policymaking.
Amb. Charles W. Freeman Jr.
Ambassador Chas. W. Freeman is former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and was Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs under President Clinton. After 30 years as a U.S. diplomat, he became the chairman of Projects International in 1995. He is also currently president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, vice-chair of the Atlantic Council, a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analyses - and a director of the Pacific Pension Institute. Amb. Freeman is the recipient of two Distinguished Public Service Awards, three Presidential Meritorious Service Awards, and a Distinguished Honor Award.
J. Stapleton Roy
J. Stapleton Roy is a senior United States diplomat specializing in Asian affairs. A fluent Chinese speaker, Roy spent much of his career in East Asia, where his assignments included Bangkok, Hong Kong, Taipei, Beijing, Singapore, and Jakarta. He also specialized in Soviet affairs and served in Moscow at the height of the Cold War. Ambassador Roy served as Assistant Secretary of State for intelligence and research from 1999 to 2000.
Ambassador Roy was born in Nanjing, China of American missionary parents. He attended Mount Hermon School (now Northfield Mount Hermon), and in 1956, graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University, where he majored in history and was elected to Phi Beta Kappa.
Roy rose to become a three-time ambassador, serving as the top U.S. envoy in Singapore (1984-86), the People's Republic of China (1991-95), and Indonesia (1996-99). In 1996, he was promoted to the rank of career ambassador, the highest rank in the United States Foreign Service.
Roy is currently a managing director of Kissinger Associates, Inc., Chairman of the Council for the Johns Hopkins-Nanjing Center, and a director of ConocoPhillips and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.